Help to Buy review finds £25.1bn social value as successor announced

Help to Buy delivered "very high" value for money, according to an independent evaluation of the England scheme published on GOV.UK in September 2026. The report puts the scheme's net present social value (total benefits minus net public cost) at £25.1 billion in 2024/25 prices. The report was published on 15 September 2026, the same day The Guardian reported it. Eleven days later, the government announced a successor equity loan scheme for first-time buyers in England.

What did the Help to Buy evaluation find?

The evaluation was commissioned by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) and carried out by Verian with Alma Economics and Sheffield Hallam University (GOV.UK, September 2026). It covers the Help to Buy equity loan (a government loan towards the purchase price, repaid as a share of the home's future value) in England from 2013 to 2023. The GOV.UK page states that it applies to England. Wales ran its own scheme, introduced later, and the researchers used that gap to compare markets either side of the border.

The data shows over 387,000 properties were bought through the scheme, 328,000 of them by first-time buyers (GOV.UK). Loans issued rose from almost 14,000 in 2013 to a peak of over 52,000 in both 2018 and 2019, then fell until the scheme closed in 2023. The total value of the equity loans was £24.7 billion, according to the same report.

The £25.1 billion headline needs reading carefully. The Guardian (15 September 2026) described it as £25bn of social value provided "in the last financial year". But the report itself states the figure is in 2024/25 prices and covers the lifetime of the scheme, April 2013 to March 2023. It also includes projected income from loan redemptions up to 2039/40.

Where does the £25.1 billion come from?

Almost all of it is housing supply. The report credits £28.6 billion of benefits to extra new homes (GOV.UK, September 2026). It measures them by land value uplift (the value of a new home to society after deducting its land and development costs). Against that sits a total net public cost of £3.6 billion in present value terms.

The gap between gross and net cost is the underlying picture. Loans, admin and staffing cost £30.9 billion in present value terms, while loan redemptions and interest are expected to bring back £27.3 billion (GOV.UK). The report does not publish a benefit cost ratio, because the scheme is a financial transaction whose total net cost is relatively small.

The report's sensitivity analysis (tests of how the result changes under different assumptions) still shows value for money in every scenario. Restricting the supply effect to regions bordering Wales cuts the figure to £4.1 billion ("high"), and assuming no spillover to non-scheme homes cuts it to £2.3 billion ("medium"). Cutting future redemption income by 25% still leaves a net present social value of £22.8 billion, rated "very high". A higher house price index scenario lifts it to £25.3 billion.

There is a limit on what the figure measures. The report states that effects on house prices are excluded, because the HM Treasury Green Book treats price changes as transfers between buyers and sellers. The Guardian (15 September 2026) made the same point, noting the report did not account for the effect on house prices.

How does this compare with earlier Help to Buy evaluations?

This is the third independent evaluation, so the numbers can be compared over time. The 2017 evaluation found 37% of buyers could not have bought without the scheme (as cited in the GOV.UK report). It credited the scheme with 14.5% of new build supply up to March 2017. The new customer survey puts the first figure at 46%, with the remaining 54% saying they could have bought without it.

On supply, the econometric analysis (statistical modelling of market data) suggests around 15% of new builds in England from 2013 to 2023 were the result of the scheme (GOV.UK). The report estimates that for every 100 Help to Buy loans issued, developers built around 78 new homes.

The price picture is less flattering. Help to Buy 1 ran from 2013 to 2021 and was open to first-time buyers and existing homeowners for primary homes up to £600,000 (GOV.UK). During that phase, average prices on the English side of the border were around 2% higher than the Welsh trend implied. Price rises were larger in areas that were already less affordable. And the report found a new build premium (the extra paid for a new home over a similar older one) of 5% without Help to Buy and 6% with it.

For investors, the closure data matters most. The report finds the end of the scheme in 2023 appears to have left first-time buyer mortgage sales about 10-15% lower than they would otherwise have been (GOV.UK). If you price new-build stock, our guide to negotiation and finance covers how buyer finance shapes what sellers accept.

What has happened since the review was published?

Policy moved quickly. In its 15 September 2026 report, The Guardian quoted a government spokesperson: "There are no current plans to introduce a new help-to-buy scheme." The Guardian reported that housing minister Matthew Pennycook had pushed behind the scenes for a Labour version.

On 26 September 2026 the government announced Your First Home, a new equity loan scheme in England to be confirmed at next month's Budget (GOV.UK). It is expected to support 2.5% deposits backed by 20% government-backed equity loans. It applies to first-time buyers purchasing a new build from a developer signed up to the scheme.

The report advised that any future scheme be explicit about who and which areas it is meant to help. Your First Home will set a household income cap with local property price caps, with detail due at the Budget (GOV.UK, 26 September 2026). Developers will be expected to contribute when they sign up.

The trend is clear, but the detail is not. Costs and implementation timelines will be announced by the Chancellor at the Budget next month, according to GOV.UK. Until then, you may wish to model new-build demand under a range of assumptions rather than one figure. Our overview of property investment strategies compares new-build and resale routes.

If you are comparing purchase costs on new-build stock, our free stamp duty calculator covers first-time buyer relief alongside the rates investors pay.

For the wider set of free tools, including lender stress tests, see our free property calculators.

Key takeaways

• An independent evaluation rates Help to Buy in England "very high" value for money, with a net present social value of £25.1 billion in 2024/25 prices over the scheme's lifetime (GOV.UK, September 2026).

• Over 387,000 properties were bought through Help to Buy between 2013 and 2023, 328,000 of them by first-time buyers (GOV.UK).

• The scheme is credited with around 15% of new builds in England, but the value figure excludes its effect on house prices, estimated at around 2% on the English side of the border during Help to Buy 1 (GOV.UK).

• 46% of customers said they could not have bought without Help to Buy, up from 37% in the 2017 evaluation (GOV.UK).

• Your First Home, announced on 26 September 2026, is expected to offer 20% equity loans and 2.5% deposits on new builds in England, with detail due at next month's Budget (GOV.UK).