UK house price growth halves to 0.8% as southern England slips

UK house price growth halved to 0.8% in the year to September, down from 1.6% in August, according to Nationwide's September House Price Index. That is the weakest annual rate since December 2025. Here's the angle most coverage will miss: the slowdown is not spread evenly, and the regions now below last year's prices are where buyers may have more room to negotiate.

How much did prices move in September?

Nationwide's seasonally adjusted index fell 0.2% month on month in September, after a 0.2% rise in August. Seasonal adjustment strips out the normal calendar swings in the market, so the monthly figure compares like with like. The average price, which Nationwide publishes without seasonal adjustment, was £274,251, against £275,465 in August.

On my own arithmetic, that is a fall of £1,214 in the unadjusted average over the month. It is a direction, not a discount anyone can bank. A single month of an average price covers every type of home in every region.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, put the subdued market partly down to "the uncertain economic backdrop". He said the conflict in the Middle East is "exerting upward pressure on energy prices, fanning inflation concerns". He said this has led to "mounting financial market expectations of Bank Rate increases", which "has maintained upward pressure on the market interest rates which underpin mortgage pricing". If borrowing costs are the squeeze on your numbers, our free stress test calculator shows how much a lender will lend against a given rent at a stressed rate.

Where are prices falling, and where are they still rising?

Nationwide's regional figures are quarterly, covering the three months to September, so they carry a different UK annual change of 1.2%. Eight of its thirteen regions recorded annual growth below 1% in Q3. Four of those posted small annual falls: Outer Metropolitan at -0.2%, the South West at -0.3%, the East Midlands at -0.5% and East Anglia at -0.7%.

Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland tell a different story, with one exception: the East Midlands, which Nationwide counts as Northern England, was among the four fallers. Northern Ireland led at 5.9%, slower than 8.6% in Q2, and Scotland rose 3.3%. The North West, which takes in Cheshire, Lancashire and Greater Manchester, rose 3.9%, unchanged on the previous quarter. Southern England as a whole fell 0.1%, while Northern England rose 1.6% (Nationwide, Q3 2026).

By my calculation, the gap between the North West and East Anglia is 4.6 percentage points of annual growth. This is the part of the data worth watching. In my read, falling regions may mean softer vendor pricing. Analytics and heat maps for every area in our deal sourcing software show how that split plays out locally.

Is there an angle in flats?

Every property type slowed in Q3, according to Nationwide. Terraced homes were strongest at 1.8%, while flats were "essentially unchanged compared with a year ago". Over the longer run, Nationwide says a typical flat has risen 14% since the start of 2020, against 31% for a semi-detached home.

Nationwide links part of that gap to London, which has a much greater share of flats and has underperformed the wider UK. London rose just 0.4% in Q3, the only southern region with an annual rise. Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent quoted by PropertyWire (2 October), said buyers are "negotiating harder, especially for flats".

Here's the opportunity, with the risk attached. In my view, a flat bought on flat prices has to work on rent alone, so the margin on this comes from yield, not growth. Our property investment strategies hub sets out the main strategies, including yield-led ones such as HMOs (houses in multiple occupation).

Gardner also said "underlying affordability is improving, as house price growth has been well below earnings growth for some time". He said this suggests activity should "regain momentum in the quarters ahead providing the energy shock fades and confidence returns". That is a conditional forecast, so you may wish to price deals on today's numbers rather than on the recovery.

Key takeaways

• UK house price growth halved to 0.8% in the year to September, from 1.6% in August, the weakest annual rate since December 2025 (Nationwide).

• Nationwide's seasonally adjusted index fell 0.2% month on month, and the unadjusted average price was £274,251.

• Four of Nationwide's thirteen regions recorded annual falls in Q3 2026, with East Anglia weakest at -0.7%.

• The North West rose 3.9% and Northern Ireland 5.9% in Q3, so the regional split matters more than the UK headline.

• Flats were essentially unchanged on a year earlier, and have risen 14% since the start of 2020 against 31% for semi-detached homes.