The headlines screamed "mass evictions". Property Wire reported Criterial Capital serving 130 London tenants with Section 21 notices. Property Wire also reported that Dorrington evicted 30 households from a Richmond property. MPs warned of "the largest mass eviction by a private landlord in decades."

But the National Residential Landlords Association (NRLA) published different data. Section 21 (no-fault) possession claims filed in English county courts fell to 28,112 in 2025 (down from higher levels in prior years), according to NRLA data - the lowest since 2022. Q4 2025 saw just 6,367 Section 21 claims, according to NRLA analysis, marking the lowest quarter in three years.

What's really happening here?

The narrative clash

The tension is real but easily misread. Yes, landlords are serving Section 21 notices at scale before the abolition deadline of 1 May 2026. But serving a notice and securing possession are not the same thing. The NRLA's court data tracks claims filed - the formal step towards eviction. If notices are being served but claims are falling, the queue has likely built up in solicitors' offices awaiting court capacity. Or landlords are simply taking precautions without following through.

The NRLA argues the 2024 rise (from 108,000 notices in 2023 to 130,000 in 2024) reflects landlords rushing ahead before legislative change. This logic holds for notices, but the 2025 claims data complicates the picture. Courts are processing fewer claims, not more.

What this means for your tenants

From the tenant side, this is less reassuring than the headline numbers suggest. A tenant served with a Section 21 notice today faces a tighter timeline. Their landlord has a genuine incentive to move quickly. Under current law, a Section 21 notice requires two months' notice. After 1 May, Section 21 becomes unavailable - and the only remaining route is Section 8 (fault-based eviction), which requires proof of breach.

That creates a paradoxical situation: fewer claims this year but higher pressure on individual tenants. Landlords are being selective. They're not evicting wholesale; they're targeting properties they've decided to exit. Criterial Capital and Dorrington are not representative of the overall private rental sector. They are high-profile outliers.

Siobhain McDonagh MP described the Criterial Capital and Dorrington cases as "silently and in semi-secrecy" mass evictions. From the tenant perspective, that language captures real fear. 130 notices at once signals a coordinated business decision that individual families cannot influence. Local authorities in London and the South East are preparing for temporary housing surges. The ripple effect is visible: councils are actively commissioning new temporary accommodation to meet anticipated demand.

The landlord calculation

This is where the dual perspective matters. Landlords serving notices now face a genuine legislative cliff edge. After 1 May, if a tenant breaches the tenancy agreement - late rent, anti-social behaviour, property damage - a Section 8 claim is still available. But it's slower, more evidence-intensive, and tenants have a stronger position to argue hardship.

For buy-to-let investors, that shifts the risk profile. Some landlords are likely deciding now: keep the tenant or exit. That's a legitimate business decision. Others are re-evaluating their entire rental portfolios. Rising interest rates, new deposit protections (from the Renters' Rights Act), and the removal of Section 21 all compress margins.

The NRLA's data suggests that mass panic-driven evictions are not yet materialising in the courts. But individual tenants and local councils see the risk clearly.

What to monitor

The real test comes after the Section 21 abolition deadline passes. Courts will then face a backlog of Section 8 claims from landlords who delayed action. Void periods will lengthen if landlords decide to empty properties rather than re-let to new tenants post-May. Rental demand in affected areas may shift as supply contracts.

If you own properties in London or the South East, local council planning documents and temporary housing commissioning will signal whether eviction pressure is actually translating into displacement. If you're a tenant, track your local authority's temporary housing waiting times; that's your real risk indicator.

The NRLA is right that the court numbers contradict the spike narrative. But they don't contradict the tenant anxiety. Both realities are true.