THE PROPERTY FILTER TAKE
Savills forecasts England's new home completions will average 167,500/year through to 2029/30 - barely half the Government's 300,000 annual housebuilding target, with a total five-year shortfall of 662,500 homes.
Sustained undersupply historically supports values in constrained markets, but elevated borrowing costs and stretched affordability are limiting the demand-side offset that investors would typically expect.
You may wish to use Property Filter's deal-sourcing software to identify motivated sellers in supply-constrained markets where new-build competition for stock is lowest.
England will miss its Government housebuilding target by more than 662,500 homes over the next five years, according to new research from Savills. Against a stated ambition of 300,000 new homes per year for England, Savills projects average annual completions of just 167,500 through to 2029/30. The numbers are pointing to a structural delivery failure - not a cyclical blip - with the output trajectory heading downward before any recovery materialises.
The Scale of the Shortfall
The arithmetic is clear. Savills projects England will complete roughly 837,500 homes between now and 2029/30, a five-year total that falls 662,500 homes short of what the Government's target requires. To frame that gap: it is equivalent to failing to build the entire housing stock of a city the size of Manchester - twice over.
The most recent official data confirms the direction of travel. New home completions in England fell 4.1% to 190,602 in the year to March 2025, according to Government housing statistics cited by Savills. Year-on-year, that represents a 10.2% decline over the two years since the Help to Buy scheme ended - a direct correlation between the withdrawal of government buyer support and the volume of homes delivered to market.
Savills is projecting an acceleration of a pre-existing structural deficit, not a deviation from a healthy baseline. For investors seeking opportunities in supply-constrained markets, Property Filter's deal-sourcing software can help identify motivated sellers in areas where new stock additions will remain limited.
What Help to Buy's End Has Revealed
Help to Buy was not simply a buyer subsidy. For housebuilders, it functioned as a sales certainty mechanism - a policy that reduced reservation risk and allowed developers to commit to larger site programmes with confidence. When it ended, that certainty disappeared overnight.
The consequences are now visible in the forward projections. Savills anticipates completions will decline further, dropping to just over 150,000 homes per year in both 2026/27 and 2027/28 before any recovery becomes possible. That is a two-year trough where annual output sits at barely half the Government's stated target.
Emily Williams, Director of Residential Research at Savills, noted: "England's housing delivery has proven to be reasonably resilient in the face of recent economic headwinds, but the underlying picture is becoming increasingly challenging."
The decade average completion rate has been roughly 170,000 to 180,000 homes per year - itself well short of the 300,000 target. What Savills projects for 2026/27 and 2027/28 would fall below even that long-run average. The property investment strategies hub covers how supply conditions interact with acquisition timing across different strategies.
Planning and the Development Viability Squeeze
Two compounding factors are shaping the delivery trough beyond the Help to Buy effect, according to Savills.
First, planning consents and housing starts remain at low levels. Williams cited this as creating "a thinner pipeline of homes under construction" - a structural constraint, because weak planning approvals today lock in weak completion numbers two to three years forward. Planning reform has been announced at a policy level but it has not yet translated into consent volumes.
Second, affordability pressures, higher interest rates and rising development costs are squeezing both demand and viability simultaneously. When build costs rise and buyer purchasing power falls, developers face a dual constraint: sites that were viable at 2021 cost structures no longer make financial sense at current rates. The gap between rising costs and constrained achievable sales values is particularly acute on lower-value sites and entry-level schemes.
This creates a self-reinforcing dynamic. Fewer starts today mean fewer completions in 2027 and 2028, which extends the supply constraint well beyond the current economic cycle. Investors considering development-adjacent strategies - including conversion plays or land-led acquisitions - may wish to stress-test their numbers against a higher-cost, lower-throughput environment before committing capital.
What a First-Time Buyer Scheme Could - and Could Not - Fix
The Government's most visible current intervention is a consultation on a new first-time buyer ISA to replace the Lifetime ISA. This is an England-specific policy (housing policy is devolved). The rationale is straightforward: improved buyer support at the entry level stimulates demand for smaller new-build homes, which in turn improves site viability for smaller developers.
Savills has quantified the potential upside. Under a scenario where meaningful first-time buyer support is introduced, completions could rise to 198,000 homes per year by 2028/29. That would broadly maintain output at the average rate seen over the last decade, despite the significant headwinds currently in play.
The comparison to the Government's target is, however, sobering. Even in this optimistic policy-supported scenario, England would still deliver fewer than two-thirds of the 300,000 annual target. A first-time buyer scheme would improve conditions at the lower end of the market, but it would not resolve the planning pipeline constraints or development viability pressures that are the primary drivers of underdelivery. Investors tracking how policy developments affect local supply dynamics can find analysis tools via the free resources hub.
Key takeaways
England is forecast to deliver 837,500 new homes over the five years to 2029/30 - a 662,500-home shortfall against the Government's 300,000/year target.
Completions fell 4.1% to 190,602 in the year to March 2025, a 10.2% decline in the two years since the Help to Buy scheme ended.
Savills expects completions to fall further to just over 150,000/year in both 2026/27 and 2027/28 before any recovery.
A first-time buyer support scheme could lift completions to 198,000/year by 2028/29 - still well short of the 300,000 annual target.
England will miss its Government housebuilding target by more than 662,500 homes over the next five years, according to new research from Savills. Against a stated ambition of 300,000 new homes per year for England, Savills projects average annual completions of just 167,500 through to 2029/30. The numbers are pointing to a structural delivery failure - not a cyclical blip - with the output trajectory heading downward before any recovery materialises.
The Scale of the Shortfall
The arithmetic is clear. Savills projects England will complete roughly 837,500 homes between now and 2029/30, a five-year total that falls 662,500 homes short of what the Government's target requires. To frame that gap: it is equivalent to failing to build the entire housing stock of a city the size of Manchester - twice over.
The most recent official data confirms the direction of travel. New home completions in England fell 4.1% to 190,602 in the year to March 2025, according to Government housing statistics cited by Savills. Year-on-year, that represents a 10.2% decline over the two years since the Help to Buy scheme ended - a direct correlation between the withdrawal of government buyer support and the volume of homes delivered to market.
Savills is projecting an acceleration of a pre-existing structural deficit, not a deviation from a healthy baseline. For investors seeking opportunities in supply-constrained markets, Property Filter's deal-sourcing software can help identify motivated sellers in areas where new stock additions will remain limited.
What Help to Buy's End Has Revealed
Help to Buy was not simply a buyer subsidy. For housebuilders, it functioned as a sales certainty mechanism - a policy that reduced reservation risk and allowed developers to commit to larger site programmes with confidence. When it ended, that certainty disappeared overnight.
The consequences are now visible in the forward projections. Savills anticipates completions will decline further, dropping to just over 150,000 homes per year in both 2026/27 and 2027/28 before any recovery becomes possible. That is a two-year trough where annual output sits at barely half the Government's stated target.
Emily Williams, Director of Residential Research at Savills, noted: "England's housing delivery has proven to be reasonably resilient in the face of recent economic headwinds, but the underlying picture is becoming increasingly challenging."
The decade average completion rate has been roughly 170,000 to 180,000 homes per year - itself well short of the 300,000 target. What Savills projects for 2026/27 and 2027/28 would fall below even that long-run average. The property investment strategies hub covers how supply conditions interact with acquisition timing across different strategies.
Planning and the Development Viability Squeeze
Two compounding factors are shaping the delivery trough beyond the Help to Buy effect, according to Savills.
First, planning consents and housing starts remain at low levels. Williams cited this as creating "a thinner pipeline of homes under construction" - a structural constraint, because weak planning approvals today lock in weak completion numbers two to three years forward. Planning reform has been announced at a policy level but it has not yet translated into consent volumes.
Second, affordability pressures, higher interest rates and rising development costs are squeezing both demand and viability simultaneously. When build costs rise and buyer purchasing power falls, developers face a dual constraint: sites that were viable at 2021 cost structures no longer make financial sense at current rates. The gap between rising costs and constrained achievable sales values is particularly acute on lower-value sites and entry-level schemes.
This creates a self-reinforcing dynamic. Fewer starts today mean fewer completions in 2027 and 2028, which extends the supply constraint well beyond the current economic cycle. Investors considering development-adjacent strategies - including conversion plays or land-led acquisitions - may wish to stress-test their numbers against a higher-cost, lower-throughput environment before committing capital.
What a First-Time Buyer Scheme Could - and Could Not - Fix
The Government's most visible current intervention is a consultation on a new first-time buyer ISA to replace the Lifetime ISA. This is an England-specific policy (housing policy is devolved). The rationale is straightforward: improved buyer support at the entry level stimulates demand for smaller new-build homes, which in turn improves site viability for smaller developers.
Savills has quantified the potential upside. Under a scenario where meaningful first-time buyer support is introduced, completions could rise to 198,000 homes per year by 2028/29. That would broadly maintain output at the average rate seen over the last decade, despite the significant headwinds currently in play.
The comparison to the Government's target is, however, sobering. Even in this optimistic policy-supported scenario, England would still deliver fewer than two-thirds of the 300,000 annual target. A first-time buyer scheme would improve conditions at the lower end of the market, but it would not resolve the planning pipeline constraints or development viability pressures that are the primary drivers of underdelivery. Investors tracking how policy developments affect local supply dynamics can find analysis tools via the free resources hub.
Key takeaways
England is forecast to deliver 837,500 new homes over the five years to 2029/30 - a 662,500-home shortfall against the Government's 300,000/year target.
Completions fell 4.1% to 190,602 in the year to March 2025, a 10.2% decline in the two years since the Help to Buy scheme ended.
Savills expects completions to fall further to just over 150,000/year in both 2026/27 and 2027/28 before any recovery.
A first-time buyer support scheme could lift completions to 198,000/year by 2028/29 - still well short of the 300,000 annual target.
Frequently asked questions
Frequently asked questions
Why is England missing its 300,000 homes-per-year housebuilding target?
What does the housebuilding shortfall mean for existing property values?
What is the Government doing to address the housing shortfall in England?
